According to a recent survey conducted by the Supply Chain Leadership Forum, a majority of Supply Chain Executives are of the opinion that the economy will “officially turn around” in either the second quarter of 2010 or the fourth quarter of 2009. Approximately 41 percent of respondents voted for second quarter 2010 recovery while 30% opted for the last quarter of 2009. Bruce Tompkins, Executive Director of the Supply Chain Consortium stated the recovery depends on the industry in question. For example, he stated that the food and beverage industry is already seeing signs of a recovery while the high tech and retail sector will have to wait for a while to see any signs of improvement. If you listen to the “official” word out of Washington, the Federal Reserve Chairman has already declared an end of the recession. The reality is most everyone agrees the end of the recession is in sight. So what did we learn from this recession?
The savviest companies used this economic downturn to position their companies ahead of their competition. “The smartest companies shifted to recovery mode before their rivals by developing and implementing a strategic plan that anticipates the end of the recession and positions them for future growth,” Tompkins says. “But even companies that were not significantly impacted by the downturn are pursuing aggressive supply chain improvements to strengthen their competitive positions.” The companies that were and probably still are in a holding pattern will fall farther behind their competition as we come out of this recession. The paralysis that has plagued many companies during this economic crisis must come to an end. Let’s hope it’s not too late for those companies to compete as we move onto firmer economic ground. 2009 has been pegged as the year of survival. What has your company done to jump ahead of the competition! We would like to know.
On another note, The Business Optimism Index, Grant Thornton’s quarterly confidence measure of U.S. business leaders increased again to 60.9 in August, 2009 compared to 54.5 in May. 58% of these respondents believe the recession will be over by the first half of 2010. The Business Optimization Index takes into account three measures.
1. The U.S. Economy: Business leaders’ perceptions of whether the U.S. economy will improve, remain the same or deteriorate in the next six months.
2. Business Growth: Business leaders’ perception about the growth of their own business over the next six months.
3. Hiring Expectations: Whether business leaders expect the number of people their companies employ to increase, remain the same or decrease in the next six months.